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The Period of Cheap Hydrocarbon Energy Has Ended by alexey ,  Jan 21, 2015

Восемь лет назад, в пятницу 19 января 2007 Эндрю Гулд, руководитель Schlumberger, крупнейшей в мире компании,занимающейся разведкой нефти, заявил, что  «...период дешевых углеводородов закончился...».  Газета Вашингтон Пост опубликовала его слова.  Уже в понедельник нефть марки Брент подскочила и стала стоить больше 54 долларов.  Следующие восемь лет нефть стоила больше этого уровня за исключением короткого периода во время кризиса 2008 года, но затем быстро отскочила вверх.  Сегодня цена нефти марки Брент упала ниже уровня Гулда. Был ли он неправ?  Видимо, нет - он сказал буквально следующее: "... потребуются инвестиции на постоянно более высоком уровне, чтобы обеспечить будущее потребление..."  Инвестиции оказались слишком большими и слишком эффектичными - добыча нефти неожиданно выросла. 

Продолжая мысль Эндрю Гулда, можно сказать, что период дорогих углеводородов закончился.  Это может оказаться справедливым в следующие восемь лет!

Eight years ago Andrew Gould, CEO of Schlumberger, said "the world is realizing that the period of cheap hydrocarbon energy has ended".  The next trading day Brent oil jumped to $54.34 and has been trading above that level since that, except for a short period during the 2008 downturn.  Today Brent has crossed the Gould level and trading below $54 per barrel.  It is widely expected the prices will continue its down trend. 

By JOHN PORRETTOThe Associated PressFriday, January 19, 2007; 5:16 PM

HOUSTON -- Oilfield services provider Schlumberger Ltd. said Friday its fourth-quarter profit soared due to significant price increases, heavy exploration activity worldwide and better-than-expected results at its seismic operation _ and the company predicted continued growth in 2007 and beyond.

Its stock price rose sharply in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company, which moved its U.S. headquarters from New York to Houston last year, said net income rose 71 percent to $1.13 billion, or 92 cents per share, from $660.6 million, or 54 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding charges and credits, earnings per share in the year-ago quarter were 52 cents.

Revenue climbed 33 percent to $5.35 billion from $4.02 billion, with oilfield services revenue up 30 percent year over year to $4.63 billion. WesternGeco, the company's seismic division, posted a 55 percent revenue boost to $721 million.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast, on average, a quarterly profit of 85 cents per share on revenue of $5.14 billion.

In a conference call with analysts, Schlumberger chairman and chief executive Andrew Gould reiterated a point made at an investor conference in September: absent any dramatic global economic slowdown that would reduce demand for oil and natural gas, Schlumberger will continue to see "high growth" through the end of this decade and into the next.

Gould also addressed concerns among some investors that recent declines in oil and gas prices could curtail the heavy exploration and production that's helped it and others in the sector post strong profits in recent quarters.

"While we remain of the opinion that there is no overall shortage of oil and gas reserves, the world is realizing that the period of cheap hydrocarbon energy has ended and new and higher sustained levels of investment are necessary to meet demand and guarantee future supplies," Gould said.

In a research note, Raymond James equity research analysts called it "another solid quarter" for Schlumberger, noting that WesternGeco continues to lift the company's bottom line and reflects "high demand for oil service related activities."

WesternGeco gathers seismic data that's used by oil companies as they explore for new oil and natural gas deposits and monitor production from existing wells.

"Strong sequential and year-over-year growth in all markets underlines the strength of Schlumberger's core business operations," the Raymond James note said.

Schlumberger shares rose $3.10, or 5.35 percent, to close at $61 on the NYSE. Its shares have traded in a range of $54 to $74.75 in the past year.

For the full year, net income rose 68 percent to $3.71 billion, or $3.01 per share, as revenue increased 34 percent to $19.23 billion.

© 2007 The Associated Press
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

2007 Jan- 8 to Jan-12     52.82 52.38 52.11 51.68 49.95  
2007 Jan-15 to Jan-19    51.28 51.19 50.83 52.29  
2007 Jan-22 to Jan-26   54.34  53.93 55.11  55.67  55.29  
2007 Jan-29 to Feb- 2    54.71 54.69 56.52  56.74 56.93  
2007 Feb- 5 to Feb- 9    58.67 58.04  58.35  57.24 57.21